“A
person who brings out the greatness of his friend himself gains importance.”
-Rig
Veda
Anyone who has spoken with me
recently will likely be tired of hearing me say how there is absolutely no
doubt in my mind that this next decade belongs to India, BUT depending on how
India chooses to traverse it, will decide if the next century is also ours. It
is true that I have always been among India’s most vocal cheerleaders, the
eternal optimist and jingoistic patriot. I believed in her potential even when
I was in the extreme minority during the lowest ebbs of our license Raj. I
never stopped believing in her despite the tremendous odds and the contrary
viewpoints of many an expert. Today, the landscape is far different, and I
imagine few people will challenge my views based on the last decade of economic
data.
First, let’s discuss why I am
optimistic before I spell out the major caveat. The reason for my optimism lies
in two parts: one has to do with forces within India, and the other a set of
external factors which squarely benefit us. It is true that in the 21st century,
no country can thrive on its own because of our global economic interconnectedness
and interdependence. These connections will only grow deeper in the next
century and serve to further isolate economies like Russia, Iran, North Korea
and others that pursue isolation over smart dependency.
Indians want innovation over idol worship andpaycheques over pogroms
We can all agree that we owe a debt
of gratitude to the Congress Party for ushering in an era of liberalisation, without
which we would not be among an elite group of economies, the third
largest in the world. However, I also believe the greater debt we owe them has
to do with the unmitigatedly corrupt, greedy and dystopian second term they
presided over. Their unchecked gluttony is directly responsible for shaking the
lethargy of the Indian public; we would not have seen the rise of Narendra Modi
onto the national stage without it. As a direct result of our frustration
with the Congress, the majority of Indians were willing to give Mr. Modi a chance,
and not based on his Hindutva philosophy. This combined with his promise to
beat China and provide economic development for all Indians. It is why the
youth voted for him in large numbers, the same youth that carries no baggage
from 1984 or 2002 - a generation born on WhatsApp. Mr. Modi would do well to
recognise and remember this because if he is seen to pander to the vocal
minority within his base, the same winds that ushered him in will push him back
into regional oblivion. Indians want innovation over idol worship and pay
cheques over pogroms; they do not want a Hindu nation.
The second factor that helped put
the wind in India’s sails (around the time of Congress’s demise and Mr. Modi’s
rise) had to do with the course that the other much vaunted BRICS economies took.
In a word, they are all in the shit hole with the exception of China, which is
a little different. I don’t need to spend time explaining how Russia has faltered,
but will point to one thing worth nothing with regards to Brazil's and South Africa’s demise. Without question both
suffered from poor leadership, institutionalized corruption and flimsy economic
policies that were based on riding the global financial bubble, not on investments
in domestic growth. We can argue that India had many of the same problems with
corruption and lack of strong leadership under Manmohan Singh, but there is one
major difference; we have a much stronger democracy. One that can withstand
medium-term failures, and has the ability to course correct when things go
deeply wrong. Look no further than the decimation of Congress, the rise of AAP
and the BJP wave.
The fundamentals of our democracy are strong, not just in terms of people and ideas but also civil institutions, our judiciary and bureaucracy. We are better equipped to withstand bad government for a term or two and bounce back than any of the other BRICS. China is the only other BRIC standing, and here I will argue that it is our democratic values that will help us win the day against them. While China’s economic growth has been sputtering of late, I believe the final drain on their storied growth will come from a social implosion. Simply put, you cannot give people a little taste of capitalism and then expect to continue to control their thinking and freedoms, certainly not in a world where there is a world wide web and the ability to travel. Once people taste freedom of thought and expression, they tend to want more, not less.
The fundamentals of our democracy are strong, not just in terms of people and ideas but also civil institutions, our judiciary and bureaucracy. We are better equipped to withstand bad government for a term or two and bounce back than any of the other BRICS. China is the only other BRIC standing, and here I will argue that it is our democratic values that will help us win the day against them. While China’s economic growth has been sputtering of late, I believe the final drain on their storied growth will come from a social implosion. Simply put, you cannot give people a little taste of capitalism and then expect to continue to control their thinking and freedoms, certainly not in a world where there is a world wide web and the ability to travel. Once people taste freedom of thought and expression, they tend to want more, not less.
There is no question that the demise
of the BRICS has been another major gift for Mr. Modi. Now he must make sure he
does not waste it. Their demise has made us the cynosure of all global
investment for the foreseeable future. This, before
Mr. Modi did anything to prove himself, or have time for his policies to
have a substantial impact on India’s economy. It has provided him with a
one-term carte blanche of sorts but he now very quickly needs to start putting
this foreign investment where his development (mouth) is.
Capitalism is driven purely by great ideas, not by ideology
Now the big caveat I mentioned. What
made America the greatest economy and strongest nation over the last century is
the fact that the majority of Americans found a way to rise beyond petty
politics, religious rabble-rousing and superficial differences, to unite under
common cause. As a society they understood that capitalism is driven purely by great
ideas, not by ideology. For this reason their leaders have always embraced
inclusiveness (slavery aside) and not for some other higher altruistic purpose.
It is why they have encouraged freedom of thought, expression and strived to
build a homogenous melting pot of diverging cultures and viewpoints.
Diversity makes a nation richer and
more powerful, as long it can find a common capitalist cause to rally behind
(not a political or religious one). The American motto “E Pluribus Unum” can be
found on everything from their coins and currency to their Presidential seal; it
means “out of many, one”. Americans have rallied behind this motto and worked
hard to attract the brightest and best minds from every corner of the globe;
this diversity has paid great dividends with world-beating innovation, and years
of economic growth and military dominance.
India’s veins are bursting with rich
and diverse talent. Mr. Modi must now strive to create an even more open-minded
and inclusive society, one that convalescences around education, skill
development, economic opportunity and growth, not around Hindutva. Now is the
time to stand united, not to divide further. This alone will allow Mr. Modi to
deliver on his promise of the Indian dream. However, if he continues to allow
the forces of Hindutva to hijack his agenda,
then he will very quickly squander the Indian century that is now finally, and
firmly, within our grasp.